In the forthcoming years and decades, global challenges ranging from diseases, financial crises, technological disruptions, and climate change will occur more frequently in every country and region. The manifestation of these universal challenges will continue to exacerbate as years pass by, causing a detrimental impact on communities, the existing systems, and states. Notably, the human population has more than tripled in the last half a century, accelerating the use of available resources exceeding the world’s capacity to regenerate. Also, there is more waste production than the world would absorb.
Since the 1950s, humanity’s influence on the world has led to the unprecedented loss of biodiversity, excessive carbon emission, deforestation, and soil degradation. The ongoing and long-lasting issue of climate change will continue to worsen to the degree of becoming irreversible. In this regard, this essay projects on how the world’s future will be in the coming years.
Future Environment
In relation to the environment, the effects of climate change will intensify in the next 20 years, causing extreme weather such as intense hurricane storms, droughts, coastal flooding, and heat waves. The rising temperatures will cause an increase in sea levels and the melting of ice caps and glaciers. Areas such as the Mediterranean, Central Europe, and eastern and central North America will likely face intense heat waves. The issue of climate change will also intersect with environmental degradation, causing new vulnerabilities and worsening the existing challenges of food insecurity, water shortage, and health concerns. As the effect of climate change worsens, governments, private sectors, and societies will expand on their resilience and adaptation measures to mitigate them. However, the measures that will be developed will not be evenly distributed to some communities. In this regard, the issue of inequalities facing certain communities or groups will continue to worsen.
Currently, high-income and middle-income countries have made significant efforts to reduce water and air pollution. However, in the next 30 years, the growth and expansion of the industrial sector will increase water and air pollution by 10%, worsening climate change. Municipal and industrial waterways will be discharged into rivers, causing water pollution. Also, most industries established by the end of 2030 will depend on fossil fuels as a primary energy source. Doing so will emit harmful substances such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, causing ozone depletion. Excessive pollution of rivers and the air will cause health complications among people and will contribute to the loss of biodiversity.
Another major concern the world will face in the future due to climate change is water and food security issues. Countries in Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and some parts of Brazil and Argentina that rely on rain-fed agriculture will experience changing precipitation, resulting in low agricultural products causing food insecurities. However, some countries such as Russia, northern Europe, and Canada may gain from global warming because it lengthens the growing season. Also, in the next 30 years, fisheries will be under threat due to ocean acidification and oxygen depletion caused by climate change. Fishermen may have little or no fish in their territorial waters, potentially invading neighbouring waters of other states. Also, the lack of fish will further worsen the issue of food security.
Future Population
By the end of 2050, the world population will increase by approximately 1.3 million, reaching about 9.1 million people worldwide. However, there will be a major shift in demographics that will manifest differently based on a region or nation. Emerging economies in East Asia, Latin America, and Africa will experience an exponential population growth. However, it will begin to shrink by 2050 due to excessive pressure exerted on the available resources. There will be a large working population that will provide enough labor to fuel economic growth. However, governments will face challenges in creating job opportunities for the youth. Consequently, most countries, especially emerging economies, will have the highest unemployment rates. With the increase in population, people living under extreme poverty conditions will escalate in every country, especially in Asian countries, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.
In the next 30 years, most people will move to urban areas to seek employment opportunities. Currently, 40% of the world’s population lives in urban centers. By the end of 2050, about 56% of the world’s population will reside in urban areas. In Sub-Saharan countries, cities will record higher birth rates than other regions, potentially increasing labor supply to fuel economic growth. However, most cities will struggle to provide social amenities, resources, and housing. Globally, most cities have at least 1 million residents. In the next two decades, governments and non-governmental organizations will face challenges in funding public services, education infrastructure, and urban transportation.
Future Economy
In the coming few decades, more economic trends will emerge, such as increased national debt, a more fragmented and complex trading environment, new employment opportunities, and changes in trade laws. Different governments, especially in developing countries, will try to formulate new strategies to reduce the debt burden by imposing more taxes on citizens. Doing so will lead to a higher cost of living, and most people are likely to be left homeless. Larger economies such as the US, Russian and other European countries will experience challenges allocating funds for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, including payment committed to other social programs.
Developing and emerging economies will face financial crisis because of accumulated debt in the past 20 years. Also, they will try recovering their debt through external borrowing, further escalating debt distress. The global interest will remain relatively low, but the local currency will continue to depreciate, making it almost impossible for third-world countries to pay their debt to their creditors. Some governments will opt to maintain public spending that will further escalate debt burdens through borrowings. Moreover, the local currency is more likely to continue depreciating. Countries offering external aid, such as the US, will consider prioritizing their expenditure on domestic issues rather than extending their aiding hand to other countries.
The trading system in the world will become more fragmented in the next 20 years. After the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), little effort has been made toward formulating additional trade agreements. The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) is the only multinational agreement since 1995. Considering that WTO rules are becoming obsolete, future agreements will establish new standards and rules that largely touch on commercial transactions. There have been controversies about regional and bilateral trade agreements that seem too ineffective to address issues of market access and tariffs. In this regard, there will be more restrictive measures that will affect the international market.
Future Technology
Technology will potentially help mitigate problems such as disease and climate change. However, there will be a major shift in the employment landscape because of artificial intelligence (AI), new technologies, automation, additive manufacturing, and online tools. Tasks carried out by humans, such as diagnosing disease, driving, and keeping records, are already becoming automated. In the next 30 years, these tasks will be fully automated, leaving many people jobless. In particular, technology will replace most middle-skill professionals such as office clerks, metal workers, and machine operators. Automation will also affect high-income professionals such as engineers, lawyers, and doctors. From this view, technology will be one of the leading factors causing higher unemployment rates and job displacement, especially in developing countries.
The future growth and development of technology will lead to competition for dominance between the most powerful countries, including Russia, China, and the US. There is ongoing competition between China and the US in establishing leadership in technology, with China rising faster, catching up with most Western technologies. Most potent countries will allocate huge expenditures to build more sophisticated technologies and spark innovation. AI has demonstrated effectiveness in problem-solving and cognition by using machines rather than humans. By 2040, AI applications intertwined with other technologies will play a vital role in every aspect of life, ranging from efficient transportation, increased agricultural outputs, improved educational systems, and enhanced healthcare services. Also, AI will be more advantageous to military systems by enhancing the performance of weapons and security systems. However, more disruptions and tensions will occur between and within states, industries, and societies. Some states will want to dominate or possess more sophisticated weapons that will make other countries feel threatened.
How this future will affect my life
Undeniably, the changes that will manifest in the future will negatively and positively impact my life. Firstly, the growth in technology will give a new experience to every human and most potentially empower individuals. In particular, there will be easy access to information and higher productivity in almost every sector of the economy. Moreover, better quality of healthcare services will benefit the future population. However, I think that future technology will decrease employment opportunities. Considering that most people have already specialized in some areas, the growth in AI and other sophisticated technologies will deprive people of their jobs. Furthermore, the development of technologies may likely pose a challenge to maintaining peace across the world. Countries such as China, Russia and the US are taking advantage of new technology to build more powerful weapons to strengthen their military. This means future wars are likely to be more catastrophic.
Another aspect I fear about the future is the polarization of groups along political, religious, and ethnic lines that will create tension. Currently, more people are dissatisfied with mainstream politics that has failed to address social grievances, including economic challenges. Since 2010, the world has continued to experience growth in anti-government protests. Although protests are a good indicator of good democracy, some of the issues raised during protests are less addressed to meet public expectations. This raises concerns about whether the democratic way of ruling addresses the issues facing the public or favors people in office. From this view, in the next 30 years, the US government will make systemic changes to improve its democratic practices.
All other forms of environmental issues, including climate change, will continue to negatively impact humanity by intensifying weather events such as storms, floods, and heavy rains. Besides, more diseases will emerge, causing health complications among people. In this view, there are potential risks of being affected by adverse weather conditions and diseases in the future because the current efforts are inadequate. Moreover, there is a lack of coordination between countries across the globe in the fight against climate change. Most governments are mainly concerned with building their economy by exploiting natural resources and disposing of industrial effluents in water and air. Breathing polluted air and drinking contaminated water has severe health complications for humanity. Also, the emission of carbon dioxide and other toxic gases will increase the depletion of the ozone layer, giving way to ultraviolet rays that cause skin cancer. Therefore, the effects of climate change are more likely to worsen and cause a detrimental impact on my life.
Insights from Covid-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed various issues and weaknesses countries have in combating disease outbreaks. Most governments realized they possessed less equipment to fight against COVID-19, and most health facilities were incapacitated. The imposed regulations to control the spread of COVID-19, such as closing international borders, quarantines, and lockdowns, negatively impacted global supply chains, making companies rethink the aspect of globalization. During COVID-19, multinational corporations and governments that relied on global supply chains experienced challenges in acquiring resources from other countries, causing a detrimental impact on their economy. According to Niblett, this situation forced societies, companies, and governments to think of strengthening their ability to cope with the situation over an extended period of economic isolation. In the future, governments will devise measures to strengthen their economic capacity in dealing with internal affairs without relying on other countries or external supply chains. Robin asserts that the future world will adopt a mutually beneficial globalization that will give security to shared gains.
The Covid-19 crisis also exposed weaknesses in the international cooperation. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic revealed political cleavages and weaknesses in international institutions such as the United Nations (UN) and World Health Organization (WHO), raising the question of whether or not the two organizations are willing to work in unison to fight against a common enemy beyond addressing Covid-19 such as dealing with climate change and regional conflicts. During Covid-19, the WHO faced funding difficulties to run its operations. Besides, Walt asserts that Covid-19 and other previous plagues did not enhance global cooperation. Instead, it reinforced nationalism as most governments turned inward to manage and control the spread of COVID-19. This also reinforces the retreat from hyper-globalization in the future.
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